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The recent TPU market is lacklustre, and the market price has hardly rebounded, continuing the previous pattern of weak supply and demand. As of December 8, the price of TPU continued to weaken, and the market price of shoe materials in South China had fallen to 16,300 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 10% compared to the beginning of last month. The overall operating rate of enterprises is at a low level, generally less than 60%, and the inventory level is low. The lack of downstream demand is obvious, and enterprises continue to be cautious in ordering, and the atmosphere of buying up and not buying down is relatively strong. In the later period, as the Spring Festival approaches and the epidemic situation is released, downstream companies are increasingly shutting down work and taking vacations in advance. It is expected that the TPU market will heat up significantly again after the start of the year when companies resume work and production.
TPUMain raw material market conditions: 1) Crude oil market: On December 6, U.S. crude oil fell below the low of the year, and Brent crude oil closed at $80 a barrel for the second time this year the following. As of the close on the 6th, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery in January 2023 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.48% (3.81% on December 5) to close at $74.25 a barrel, the lowest level since the end of December last year The price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in February 2023 fell 4.03% (down 3.38% on December 5) to close at $79.35 a barrel. On December 7, international oil prices continued to decline, Brent crude oil once fell below $78, and U.S. crude oil fell below $73. The continuous decline of crude oil is one of the important reasons for the downturn in prices in the downstream industrial chain. 2) MDI market: As of November 30, the MDI unit (1.1 million tons/year) and TDI unit (300,000 tons/year) of Wanhua Chemical Company’s Yantai Industrial Park have completed maintenance and resumed production. In addition, nearly 1 million tons of MDI production capacity in the Yangtze River Delta region has begun to be overhauled, and the overhaul time is expected to be one month. The domestic pure MDI market is sluggish and stable, and the industry is prudent to maintain production. The demand of downstream manufacturers is flat, and they are slowly following up on demand. At present, the price of pure MDI has fallen to the range of 16200-16500. 3 ) BDOMarket: As of December 7, the price of spandex (40D) was 33,500 yuan/ton. Downstream end customers are not motivated to purchase goods, so follow up conservatively. The center of gravity of the raw material market is weak, and the support of spandex costs has declined. At the same time, the demand in the downstream terminal market is insufficient to follow up, and the purchase is mainly based on rigid demand. It is expected that the price of spandex will continue to decline in the short term. 4 ) Adipic acid market: trend of pure benzene Weak, affecting the confidence of industry players. Near the settlement, the enthusiasm of the downstream to enter the market has slightly decreased, waiting for the news to become clear. The terminal demand is insufficient, and the industry is more cautious about the market outlook, and the shipment intention still exists. The recent operating load of adipic acid is about 50%, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue the current trend in the future.
TPU Main downstream demand areas: 1) Clothing, shoes and hats: 2022 The cumulative export value of textiles from January to October. 125.66 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative export value of clothing was 147.59 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2022, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles of enterprises above the designated size will be 115.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%. From January to October 2022, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles of enterprises above designated size will be 1,041.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. From January to October 2022, the cumulative online retail sales of wearable goods increased by 5.3%. 2) Furniture market: From January to October, the PPI of the furniture manufacturing industry rose by an average of 1.8% year-on-year on a monthly basis, with a higher increase in the second quarter; the PPI of all industrial products rose by an average of 5.3% year-on-year on a monthly basis. The raw materials of the furniture manufacturing industry are mainly plates and petrochemicals (MDI, TDI), so they are affected by the rise in the prices of plates and petroleum. In the first half of this year, the average export unit price and import price index of various boards were at a high level in the past five years, and the import prices of particleboard and plywood dropped after May;The upstream raw materials TDI and MDI of the admixture are petrochemical products. Affected by the price of oil, the price of TDI is at a high level since 2020. It rose to a high point in October and then fell back; the price of polymeric MDI continued to decline this year. 3) Real estate market: Housing starts, completions, and sales area continued to decline. Since August, the year-on-year decline in the policy of insured handover at the completion end has narrowed to single digits. As of the end of October, residential construction starts, completions, and sales area fell by 38.5%, 18.5%, and 25.5% year-on-year, respectively, and the month-on-year data continued to decline. Among them, the completed area benefited from the policy of guaranteed delivery of buildings, which has been greatly repaired since August. From August to October, the completed residential area increased by -5.2%/-6.1%/-9.2% year-on-year, respectively, and the decline remained at single digits. Affected by multiple rounds of real estate stimulus policies on the sales side, sales in September picked up marginally and the decline narrowed. 4) Automobile market: According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the national auto sales from January to October 2022 will be 21.975 million, a year-on-year +4.6%, of which new energy vehicle sales will be 5.28 million, a year-on-year +107.7%. From January to October 2022, domestic auto companies exported 2.456 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%. In terms of vehicle types, 1.975 million passenger vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 57.1%; commercial vehicle exports were 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 43.0%. The export of new energy vehicles was 499,000, a year-on-year increase of 96.7%.
