Futures: coke 2109 shocked rise on Wednesday, increased more than 1,000 positions. Recently, the profits of steel mills have picked up, and the output has started to pick up this week; Under the condition of high profit of coking plant, it is more likely to accept the price adjustment, but the support is strengthened under the condition of high price of coking coal, limited production of local coking enterprises and large discount of futures coke. Under the situation of a large discount, the market continued to rebound. In the near future or continue to support the recovery of market volatility, pay attention to the impact of capital flow and market sentiment changes on the rhythm of the market, and prevent the washout.
Spot: Shanxi environmental protection is strict, Shandong environmental protection production reduction is expected to increase in the later stage, coking coal prices are high, some coking enterprises are limited to stop production, and inventory is low. Steel output reduction policy is expected to be strong, and many local steel mills raised and lowered coke price by 120%. Rizhao, Qingdao port trade coke slightly down, the transaction is weak: quasi first grade coke was 2,870 RMB/ ton, first grade coke was 2,970 RMB/ ton, including tax price. Most of the steel plants maintain high demand and support. The steel plant inventory and port inventory change slightly. Pay attention should be paid to the impact of steel plant output change.
Strategy analysis: strengthen the domestic macro-control, the central bank to reduce reserve requirements and other policies to stabilize economic growth. In July, the crude steel output reduction work conference was held in many places, Shanxi environmental protection was strict, Shandong production reduction was expected to increase, local coke enterprises stopped and limited production, and inventory was low. At present, the output of steel mills has changed slightly. Many local steel mills have lowered coke prices. Futures prices have fallen sharply under pressure and rebounded after a large discount. Pay attention should be paid to the impact of changes in output of steel mills and market sentiment on the market rhythm.
