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TDIMarket Analysis
1. In 2018, the domestic TDI market was turbulent, and the overall price fluctuations were relatively obvious. In the first half of the year, the overall trend was high-fall-rebound-fall-stabilize , The second half of the year showed a rebound-fall-rebound trend as a whole. The highest point in the first half of the year occurred at 40,000 yuan/ton in early January, and there were two lowest points at the end of April and the end of June. So far, the highest point in the second half of the year is in early August, and the lowest point is in early November. The common point of price rise is mostly caused by the sharp reduction of manufacturers' inventories caused by the centralized procurement of traders and downstream.
2. In 2018, Germany's BASF Ludwigshafen 300,000 tons/year TDI plant and Dow Sadara 200,000 tons/yearTDIThe expansion of the production capacity of the device has broken the basic balance between global supply and demand, and the growth of the demand market is lower than the expansion of production capacity. The economic and political situation is complicated, the global economic recovery is weakening, and the domestic environmental protection storm continues to ferment, making some enterprises face a deadline for rectification or closure; in 2018, domestic and global TDI has started the road of decline from a high level. The traditional manufacturer policies, dealer management and sales models, downstream purchasing habits, etc. in the domestic TDI industry Slowly changing.
TDIEnterprise Strategic Dynamics
1. In August 2018, Huludao Lianshi Chemical Co., Ltd. wholly acquired Liaoning Jinhua's 50,000-ton/year TDI plant.
2. Xinjiang Heshan Juli Chemical Co., Ltd. was established in August 2010 with a registered capital of 1.013 billion yuan. The first phase of the company's 150,000 tons/year TDI and ancillary supporting projects, with a planned total investment of 3 billion yuan, started construction in May 2016. It is planned to be basically completed by the end of 2018 and put into trial operation in 2019. The second phase of the 400,000-ton/year MDI project has a planned total investment of 4.6 billion yuan. The project has already carried out pre-approval and preparation work.
3. In October, China National Agrochemical Co., Ltd. transferred 50.98% of its controlling shareholder Cangzhou Dahua Group Co., Ltd. to Jinpu Dongyu through public listing on the Beijing Equity Exchange. After this equity change, Jinpu Dongyu will directly hold 50.98% of the equity of Dahua Group, thereby indirectly controlling 46.25% of the equity of Cangzhou Dahua, and become the indirect controlling shareholder of Cangzhou Dahua. Mr. Guo Jindong, the actual controller of Jinpu Dongyu, will become the the actual controller of the transformation.
4. Southeast Electrochemical plans to build a new 150,000 tons/year TDI project in the factory in Jiangyin Industrial Concentration Zone. The company's application is currently awaiting regulatory approval. Newly planned projects may start construction in 2019. The plant already has a TDI unit with an annual capacity of 100,000 tons, which has been in operation for three years.
Interpretation of Three Towers: Generally speaking, in 2018, the domestic TDI market has undergone significant transformation in terms of supply and demand, and the trend of oversupply will gradually become prominent. TDIThe production capacity of manufacturers will once again usher in a wave of explosion. Domestic TDI There will be severe overcapacity, TDI manufacturers' competition will become more intense, and the entire market will face a new round of reshuffle. Faced with such a severe situation, what will TDI do in the future?
TDIdownstream big event
1. In 2018, the trade war between China and the United States, the world's top two economies, intensified. In the list of import tariff adjustments between China and the United States, toluene diisocyanate (TDI) products are also listed, as are TDI downstream automobiles and furniture.
2. In order to promote the structural reform of the supply side, promote the structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry, guide the improvement of the quality and efficiency of automobile products, enrich the supply of the domestic market, and meet the diverse needs of the people, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement to From July 1, 2018, the tariff on imported automobiles with a tax rate of 25% will be reduced to 15%, and the tax rate on imported auto parts will be reduced to 6%.
3. According to the statistical analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to September, the production and sales of automobiles were 20.4913 million and 20.4906 million, an increase of 0.87% and 1.49% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.90 percentage points and 2.04% lower than that of January-August. percent. Among them, the production and sales of passenger vehicles were 17.3507 million and 17.2597 million, an increase of 0.13% and 0.64% year-on-year; the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.1407 million and 3.2309 million, an increase of 5.17% and 6.31% year-on-year.
Interpretation of Three Towers: In 2018, domestic TDI prices fell sharply compared with last year, and environmental protection policies continued to rise.Under the current situation, some small factories are facing the crisis of closing down, and the two-level differentiation in the downstream of the market continues. In the current downturn in the domestic economic environment, the future domestic Will the demand keep up with the expansion of production capacity? From January to September 2018, domestic TDI imports increased by 56.07% year-on-year, and exports decreased by 22.26% year-on-year. Then in the whole year of 2018, TDI What will happen to the supply and consumption of TDI? For more details, please refer to "2018 China TDIMarket Research Report". If you have other opinions, please feel free to leave a message!
