In 2018, the price trend of various domestic polyethers basically followed the price trend of propylene oxide. When the price of propylene oxide increases, the price of polyether increases; when the price of propylene oxide decreases, the price of polyether decreases. However, there have also been cases where the trend of polyether has forced cyclopropane.
At the end of 2017, there was just-needed stocking in the downstream before the festival. Affected by manufacturers supporting the market, the stocking atmosphere in the downstream was strong, and the stocking volume increased. Rare highs since. As a result, the price at the beginning of 2018 is the highest price for the whole year. Later, as the Spring Festival was approaching, the overall downstream demand turned weak, and the support market was weak; in addition, the inventory pressure of various manufacturers increased slowly. After the price reached its highest point in early January, the prices of cyclopropane and polyether began to experience a cliff-like decline.
On the eve of the Spring Festival in February, some propylene oxide plants were shut down for maintenance due to breakdowns. In addition to Sinopec Changling and Jishen Chemical, which have maintained parking conditions since the second half of 2017, Tianjin Dagu Haozhonghai Fine Chemicals have a parking plan for about one week. Propylene oxide stopped falling and stabilized, and the market began to stabilize. Afterwards, the downstream came to the purchase cycle, when rigid demand appeared, and the market began to rebound. On March 1, Jishen Chemical ended nearly 4 months of shutdown and maintenance, and restarted the car. Affected by this, the market fell slightly.
From mid-March to mid-April, domestic propylene oxide companies have plans to shut down for maintenance. For example, Jinling in Shandong, Xinyue in Wudi, chlor-alkali in Meizhou Bay in Fujian, etc., have all shut down or reduced production due to problems such as maintenance or sewage treatment. Prices of PO and polyethers rose slightly.
Afterwards, the trend generally maintained a oscillating trend until August, when the price began to rise again. June and July are off-season for polyether, and the demand is not strong. In June, the Shanghai Cooperation Summit was held in Qingdao. Some mainstream factories in Shandong arranged for maintenance. For example, Wanhua Chemical started a 45-day maintenance plan from June 16. Jishen Chemical started to stop on June 19. During the 10-day overhaul starting on July 25, Jinling arranged to stop on July 15 and so on. The price of cyclopropane, the raw material, was pushed up due to favorable factors such as factory shutdown, which affected the price of polyether to follow up. Although most of the downstream purchases are rigid needs, compared with the previous period, there is no centralized delivery, but the overall inventory is still being consumed.
After PU China in early August, there was a wave of rigid demand in the polyether market. In contrast, in the propylene oxide market, the price of propylene rose by as much as 11% that month. Due to the maintenance of manufacturers, the supply of cyclopropane in the market is relatively scarce, and the overall price remains high. In addition, in late August, Shandong encountered typhoon force majeure, and Dongying area experienced sudden heavy rain, and Jinling cyclopropane plant was shut down.
September and October are the traditional peak seasons for cyclopropylene polyether, and the prices of various varieties are maintained at a relatively high level throughout the year, basically stable and operating at a high level. But generally speaking, most of this year’s “Golden September and Silver October” markets reflect that “the peak season is not busy”. There is less stocking in the downstream, which is basically driven by rigid demand.
The market began to fall sharply in November. The inventory of propylene oxide factories rose slowly, Jishen Chemical restarted operation, and South Korea’s S-oil successfully started shipping, and a new part of imported cyclopropane flowed into the Chinese market, with abundant supply; the price of upstream raw materials fell; compared with previous years, demand remained the same Relatively bland. The comprehensive effect of various factors caused the cyclopropylene market to fall, and the price of polyether fell accordingly. And fell to the lowest point of the year in early December. After that, it began to rebound slightly, which was a correction to the sharp drop in the previous period.
Generally speaking, the trend in 2017 remained low in the off-season in the first half of the year, and there was a very obvious increase during the “Golden September and Silver October”. However, this year’s price trend tends to fluctuate in a range, and there is no obvious distinction between off-season and peak season.
the
the
the
