<img src='/images/173817836585950.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173817835884612.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173790392641269.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173785504741037.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173728040537925.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173701124156067.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173699021540134.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173684527728076.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173647997259422.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173598287014231.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173552220681836.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173534144176375.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173491092581497.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173443181651711.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173406012383838.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173405497583164.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173400179575804.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173380042827881.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173364682761094.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173289187346782.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173284259852527.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173271042625229.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173255965252141.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173250500814526.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173193474867288.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173163002462632.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173145283957031.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173092218172937.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/173061979244585.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172927644944521.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172879222032002.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172856628625791.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172856622476219.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172855367914135.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172827523672732.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172816477570144.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172777933541482.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172736010536299.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172724501484285.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172716230259739.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172629261337778.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172622913142790.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172596337325141.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172589815322566.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172589630561663.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172588258118637.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172588256253486.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172560295376094.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172524861321872.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172491470529507.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172435065582720.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172418621072539.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172415873230361.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172385587078152.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172372609638274.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172351629844316.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172349521248079.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172316908666187.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172286678972483.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172252347086199.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172202251075533.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172171110553899.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172168688981448.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172164815083870.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172128804249636.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172121085843176.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172090782871543.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172084016146877.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172050448366331.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/172013978933970.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171966176863142.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171966173860708.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171956165516928.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171939321821609.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171912587976480.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171878124837881.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171813875772386.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171807046876692.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171772532489827.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171748319625403.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171741403076455.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171713235117346.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171712750839995.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171703544043606.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171690296855515.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171639557775601.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171613860328220.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171610531831208.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171610528865857.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171574577084876.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171530993766463.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171528964180154.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171493226631323.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171436502537168.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171434127812548.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171417060919397.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171404288842305.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171327304928132.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171181605837190.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171072344350168.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171026742339875.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171016373647913.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171008840225583.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/171008834142778.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/170909454910161.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/170859411427378.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/170835719531098.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/170756023564617.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/170737640572940.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/170693974112380.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/170604795647461.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/170302082447007.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/170300817028452.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/170043287518632.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/170039997723820.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
<img src='/images/170026679417592.jpg' alt='WTO forecast: global trade will grow by 8% this year'>
The World Trade Organization (WTO) recently released the latest "Trade Statistics and Outlook" report, pointing out that after experiencing the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, world trade will usher in a strong but uneven recovery, and the growth rate of global trade in 2021 is expected will reach 8%.
According to the forecast of the World Trade Organization, due to the faster-than-expected growth of commodity trade in the second half of last year, the recovery process of global trade has further improved; the global commodity trade volume fell by 5.3% last year and "bottomed out" in the second quarter, and global trade will continue in 2021 Rebounded from the collapse caused by the epidemic; it is expected that the impact of the epidemic will continue to appear until 2022, global trade will still be lower than the level before the epidemic, and global trade growth will slow down to 4%; the relatively positive short-term outlook for global trade is affected by regional differences, Factors such as continued weakness in service trade and lagging vaccinations in some countries will present regional imbalances; the epidemic will continue to pose the greatest threat to the outlook for global trade, and if the epidemic rebounds, the prospects for global trade recovery will be easily undermined.
At the same time, in the short term, global trade still has downside risks. The main risk points are concentrated in various factors related to the epidemic, including insufficient vaccine production and distribution, and the emergence of new virus variants. In the medium and long term, public debt and fiscal deficits will also put considerable pressure on economic growth and trade.
The report believes that if the production and distribution of vaccines are accelerated and the blockade restrictions are eased faster, this factor is expected to contribute about 1 percentage point to global GDP growth and 2.5 percentage points to global merchandise trade volume growth in 2021 By the fourth quarter of 2021, global trade will return to pre-pandemic levels. If vaccine production fails to meet demand, or if new variants of the virus emerge that cannot be effectively countered by existing vaccines, this factor would reduce global GDP growth by 1 percentage point in 2021 and reduce global trade growth by almost 2 percentage points.
In 2020, the impact of the epidemic on the volume of commodity trade in each region varies, and most regions' imports and exports have dropped significantly. Asia was the only exception, where exports rose by 0.3% and imports fell only slightly by 1.3%. Regions rich in natural resources experienced the largest declines in imports, including Africa (-8.8%), South America (-9.3%) and the Middle East (-11.3%). Compared to other regions, North American imports fell relatively modestly (-6.1%).
The report believes that in 2021, thanks to the huge financial injection of the United States, the demand for global commodity trade will be driven by North America, and this effect will be transmitted through trade channels and stimulate other economies. In view of this, the report predicts that import growth in Europe and South America will reach about 8%, while import growth in other regions will be relatively small.
In 2021, most of the world's import demand will be met by Asia, and Asian exports are expected to grow by 8.4%; European exports will increase by 8.3%; North American exports will increase by a smaller amount, 7.7%. Exports from Africa and the Middle East are expected to grow by 8.1% and 12.4%, respectively, based on forecasts of higher travel spending and stronger oil demand for the full year. Export growth in South America and the CIS will both slow, at 3.2 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "Since the middle of last year, the strong rebound in global trade has helped to soften the impact of the epidemic on people's lives, business production and the development of economies. .Keeping international markets open is critical to the economic recovery of countries from this crisis. Among them, the rapid and equitable distribution of vaccines around the world is a prerequisite for a strong and sustained recovery.Trade can help countries obtain food and basic supplies during the epidemic. Medical supplies. The production of vaccines requires the joint investment of many countries, but trade restrictions have made it more difficult to increase vaccine production, so the international community must use trade power to increase people's access to vaccines."
